Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest verdict, predicted score, key stats and suggested bets
An improved home form has given a boost to Nottingham Forest’s fortunes but their poor record away from home could let Chelsea in.
Date, KO time and TV coverage
Premier League, Saturday May 13, Kick-off 3pm
Chelsea 2-1 Nottingham Forest
Over 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Chelsea to win and over 2.5 goals
Chelsea’s last five wins have come against teams in the relegation battle, as have nine of their 11 victories over Premier League teams this season.
Chelsea have won their last six home games against Nottingham Forest, scoring at least two goals in each of those matches.
Nottingham Forest have lost 13 of their 17 Premier League away matches this season, conceding 2.41 goals per match.
Nottingham Forest have lost their last seven Premier League away matches, conceding 18 goals in the process.
Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest team news
Armando Broja (ACL), Kalidou Koulibaly (thigh), Mason Mount (groin), Reece James (hamstring), Ben Chilwell (hamstring) and Marc Cucurella (thigh) are confirmed absentees for Saturday’s match.
Marcus Bettinelli (fitness) is still recovering from injury but wouldn’t feature anyway, while Wesley Fofana (thigh) had an issue before last week’s game and could make a full recovery.
Giulian Biancone (knee), Dean Henderson (thigh), Chris Wood (thigh), Omar Richards (calf), Neco Williams (jaw) and Scott McKenna (shoulder) are confirmed absentees. Gustavo Scarpa (ankle) has resumed full training and could make the bench. Jack Colback (concussion) will be assessed, while Jonjo Shelvey is available but was recently sent home for ‘poor attitude’. It’s unclear if he’ll feature again.
Chelsea will be glad to know they are mathematically safe and the season is nearly over. Last weekend’s 3-1 victory over Bournemouth was their first win in 10 matches and the third time they have scored more than once in 19 matches.
After a run of 11 games without a win, Nottingham Forest have won twice in their last three matches. Unsurprisingly, both of those victories came at home. Those six points look like the difference between certain relegation and probable safety.
The Blues have nothing left to play for this season, but their mish-mash of talented individuals may still have a point to prove.
Mykhailo Mudryk, Noni Madueke, Benoit Badiashile and Enzo Fernandez have all performed reasonably well, but better will be expected in their second season in England.
Nottingham Forest have proven a few points in their first season back in the Premier League. The club have been patient and rewarded Steve Cooper with time, a decision which looks to have paid off.
The Reds have also demonstrated that hard work beats talent when talent fails to work hard. Forest have held or beaten Liverpool, Manchester City, Brighton and Brentford so far this season.
It’s been a different story on their travels. Cooper’s men have won one away game all season, 1-0 versus Southampton, and have lost 13 times. Despite this, there have been signs of life on the road.
Forest have scored five in their last five away matches after previously scoring three in 12. Joe Worrall, Orel Mangala, Neco Williams, Morgan Gibbs-White and Danilo have all found the net.
There’s no doubt Chelsea have gotten worse under Frank Lampard. Despite their poor season, they have found solace against the bottom clubs. Their last five victories have come against clubs in the bottom six at the time.
Bournemouth (twice), Everton and Leicester are the only Premier League teams they have scored more than once against since October. Given Forest have conceded at least two in their last seven outings, that record could improve here.
Forest allow an average of 2.41 goals per game on their travels and no side has a higher xG against in the league. Chelsea may miss chances, but Forest tend to give teams as many as they need. We expect Chelsea to win and score more than once.