Inter vs AC Milan prediction, odds and betting tips
Inter lead AC Milan 2-0 in this Champions League semi-final ahead of Tuesday’s second leg at San Siro.
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Inter vs AC Milan predictions
Simone Inzaghi himself could hardly have dreamed up a better start.
Ahead of what many expected to be a tight, tense first leg of an all-Italian Champions League final, both Inter and AC Milan appeared to be evenly matched.
But it was Inzaghi’s side who did a much better job of dealing with the occasion. Early goals from Edin Dzeko and Henrikh Mkhitaryan gave Inter a 2-0 lead with less than 11 minutes on the clock.
Unsurprisingly, Milan were shell-shocked. The first leg was their home game, so San Siro was predominantly made up of Rossoneri supporters.
But Stefano Pioli’s charges made a dismal start and they were unable to recover thereafter. On the plus side, they did not concede again. Yet a 2-0 deficit means they have a mountain to climb in the second leg on Tuesday.
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Neither Inter nor Milan has posed much of a threat in the Champions League over the last decade. They might both be in the last four of this year’s tournament, but few would argue that either belongs to the strongest quartet of European football teams in 2023.
Still, Inter in particular have had a tricky path to this stage. They qualified for the knockout rounds alongside Bayern Munich and ahead of Barcelona, before dispatching Porto and Benfica.
The Nerazzurri are now in a fantastic position to reach the Champions League final for the first time since 2010, when Jose Mourinho led them to a historic treble.
Milan are not out of the tie yet, but they face an uphill battle to turn this one around.
Inter vs AC Milan betting tips
Inter are on the verge of the Champions League final and they can complete the job with another win this week.
Inter to win – 21/20 (talkSPORT BET)
In only two of the last eight two-legged Champions League semi-finals has the same team won both matches.
That might point towards a Milan victory or a draw on Tuesday, but we reckon the best bet is tipping Inter to triumph once again.
Milan are not in a great place right now. Pioli would have wanted to see a response from his side when they faced relegation-threatened Spezia on Saturday.
Instead, the Rossoneri slumped to a 2-0 defeat which leaves their chances of Champions League qualification hanging by a thread.
Indeed, it now looks increasingly likely that Milan – who won the title last term – will finish outside the top four of Serie A.
After the loss to Spezia, the Milan ultras held a dramatic audience with the players and Pioli in full view of the television cameras.
It is fair to say the club’s fans are not happy with what they have seen in recent weeks, with only one win in Milan’s last five outings in all competitions.
Inter, conversely, have hit top form at the ideal time. They beat Sassuolo 4-2 at the weekend to make it seven wins in a row.
The momentum is with the Nerazzurri, who can advance to the final in style.
Over 2.5 goals – 1/1 (BetUK)
You would not have got very attractive odds had you tried to back over 2.5 goals in the in-play market after Mkhitaryan doubled Inter’s lead in the 11th minute of last week’s game.
But despite that early flurry from Inzaghi’s side, neither they nor Milan was able to find the back of the net in the remainder of the match.
Inter did a good job of managing the game thereafter. They largely held Milan at arm’s length and successfully restricted them to very few chances of note.
Milan’s defensive deficiencies ultimately cost them. The centre-backs, Fikayo Tomori and Simon Kjær, were below par, but they were not afforded much protection by the midfielders in front of them.
There must be a worry for Milan that Inter could slice their backline apart again. The Rossoneri trail 2-0 on aggregate and will have to take more risks. But that could result in their opponents being given too much space.
Milan will look to start quickly. If they can score early, their belief will rise. The return of Rafael Leao will be a boost. But it is just as likely that Inter notch the first goal to dampen the Milanese mood.
Either way, circumstances dictate that this should be a pretty open game.
Lautaro Martinez to score any time – 9/2 (bet365)
Lautaro Martinez did not get on the scoresheet last week, but he still managed to cause Milan’s defence plenty of problems.
Romelu Lukaku scored twice against Sassuolo on Saturday but Inzaghi will stick with the Martinez-Dzeko partnership up front for the second leg.
The Argentina international was not at his best during World Cup 2022 despite his country’s triumph, but this has been another excellent season at club level for the forward.
He has found the back of the net 24 times in total, which is 10 more goals than Inter’s second-top scorer, Dzeko.
It is true that Martinez has a much better record in Serie A than in the Champions League, but this match is at San Siro against a domestic opponent that Inter have already faced four times in 2022/23.
Milan may struggle to keep Martinez quiet for a second game running.
How to watch Inter vs AC Milan
- Location: San Siro, Milan, Italy.
- Date and time: Tuesday 16 May 2023, 8pm.
- How to watch: BT Sport 1.
About the author
Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.
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