Manchester City vs Real Madrid verdict, predicted score, key stats and suggested bets
Man City are aiming for the Treble and will fancy their chances against Real Madrid at the Etihad.
Date, KO time and TV coverage
Champions League semi-final second leg, Wednesday May 17, Kick-off 8.00pm, live on BT Sport
Manchester City 3-2 Real Madrid
Manchester City to beat Real Madrid
Manchester City vs Real Madrid over 3.5 goals
Manchester City vs Real Madrid BTTS, yes
There have been over 2.5 goals in four of the last five matches between Manchester City and Real Madrid.
These two sides have only met nine times competitively, with both winning three times.
Manchester City have won their last three home matches against Real Madrid in all competitions.
Manchester City are on a 22-match unbeaten run in all competitions.
Manchester City have won their last 15 games at home in all competitions.
Manchester City have kept four clean sheets in their last 10 games in all competitions.
Real Madrid have lost their last two away games in La Liga (vs Girona and Real Sociedad).
Real Madrid’s clean sheet in the weekend’s win over Getafe was their first in six matches.
Manchester City vs Real Madrid team news
Pep Guardiola could name the same XI that drew 1-1 with Real Madrid in the first leg. Kevin De Bruyne, Jack Grealish, John Stones and Bernardo Silva were all rested versus Everton and are set to return. Nathan Ake remains the only injury concern.
Karim Benzema, David Alaba and Rodrygo are all doubts having missed the 1-0 win over Getafe. Luka Modric, Toni Kroos, Toni Rudiger and Vinicius Junior were all rested but will return at The Etihad. Ferland Mendy is back in contention while Eder Militao returns from suspension.
Real Madrid will land at The Etihad amid an inconsistent run of form and fresh from seeing La Liga won by their deadly rivals Barcelona.
A couple of defeats away from home in La Liga handed the initiative to Barca and they capitalised, taking the title with a few weeks to spare. This will have been eradicated from Real’s thinking though when they run out in M11.
City for their part are within touching distance of another Premier League title, but their focus will be reaching their second Champions League final on Wednesday night. And the bookies think they will do it, with the home win chalked up at 4/7.
A Real away win, which will be enough to put them through, is priced up at 4/1, with the draw an enticing 10/3 shot. However, just a glimpse of City’s home form in 2023 tells you that City have been formidable. They have won 15 home games since the turn of the year, scoring 52 goals in the process.
They have also managed nine clean sheets at home in that time and Real Madrid will have to turn up and play the game of their lives to stop City heading to Istanbul for the final.
Carlo Ancelotti’s men did threaten to overrun City at times in the first leg and they are capable of playing more than one way. They do possess the players to compete against City’s short passing game, but they are also able to play longer into Karim Benzema. Meanwhile, they can also play on the break with the speed of Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo. This makes them dangerous opposition, but there is a huge question mark over their recent form.
Ancelotti’s men do normally raise their game in Europe and they will certainly do that again, but they face a stiff task stopping City at home. Nobody has managed to stop City from scoring at home this season and Brentford are the only team to have won at The Etihad since April 2022.
It’s not easy to predict how the game will go, but the last two Etihad wins over Real have seen City hold 56% and 60% possession. They won both of those encounters with both teams scoring and the latter looks more than likely again.
City stormed into a two-goal lead last April and won 4-3 before collapsing late on to lose the second leg 3-1. Of course, City looked a lot more robust this time in the Bernabeu and they know if they can win a 16th straight home game, they will be in the final against Serie A opposition.
We can expect City to dominate possession once more, but if they are forced onto the back foot, then they too can go longer into Erling Haaland as they did so effectively against Arsenal recently.
We know these two teams can score goals and we can expect over 2.5 goals in this match. In fact, over 3.5 goals looks worth a punt. Both teams will have to suffer defensively, just as they did in the first leg, when the goals were scored against the run of play.
It has the makings of another classic encounter, which will ebb and flow, and it may just be the team that defends the best advances on the night. Our vote goes to City.