MLS betting tips: Wrong team favoured by bookies as DC United host FC Cincinnati

MLS betting tips: Wrong team favoured by bookies as DC United host FC Cincinnati

DC United will play host to table toppers FC Cincinnati at Audi Field in MLS this weekend (Sunday 0030 BST).

Suggested bets

FC Cincinnati: Draw no bet

Over 2.5 goals

DC United vs FC Cincinnati verdict

DC United have improved under Wayne Rooney. There’s a clear identity to the team and a talented spine that’s making them competitive.

Mateusz Klich has provided 47 key passes leading to goalscoring opportunities so far while Lewis O’Brien mops up everything behind him.

Last season, DC couldn’t stop conceding goals and were regularly hit for three, four, even five and six goals.

The lynchpin of their success in 2023 has been their improving home form and conceding fewer goals, but results in recent weeks suggest a return to old habits.

Cincy won this fixture 5-2 last season, leading 3-0 after 24 minutes. The hosts are again slipping defensively as they’ve allowed two or more goals in four of their last five.

They can’t afford to make any errors against the league’s most ruthless team. FC Cincinnati are the masters at punishing teams and winning by fine margins.

They’ve won 12 games by a solitary strike this season and top the league with 43 points through 18 matches.

The visitors have produced an average expected goal value of 1.55 in 10 matches on their own turf and 1.5 in eight matches on their travels. In theory, they’re capable of going on a run that matches their home form.

There’s always some disparity between home and away form for MLS sides, but it feels a harsh comparison to make given they’ve won 10 from 10 at home.

They’ve dropped points in St Louis, New England, Vancouver, Chicago and Orlando, the majority of which have lost one or fewer home games.

The visitors will be without Matt Miazga and Brandon Vazquez, which is part of their spine, but there’s a lot of flexible experience at the back while Sergio Santos has matched the latter’s goal tally.

DC have won two in 10 in all competitions and our data shows Cincinnati are the favourites to win, although the bookies have priced United at close to even money.

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